The assessment of the world’s major stock exchanges is carried out with a view to identifying early indicators of potential crises or the expectation of crises.

 

Global events have a direct and immediate impact on the world economy in many areas. These reactions are reflected in stock market trading, reflecting a mixture of economic actions, emotional reactions, and automated mechanisms.

 

To this end, we consider and calculate various parameters to describe disturbances and zones of security and insecurity. If the models reveal extreme fluctuations, these are considered an indicator of global crises. We do not include standard economic indicators so that our calculations are independent of these market parameters and can, in the best case, complement the assessment.

 

Of course, these are indicators that only describe the potential for risk. Even a change in the expectation of risk can lead to significant reactions in economic life. In this respect, the expected extreme fluctuations on the stock markets also represent a fictional and irrational expectation space that must be dealt with.